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“28 days have passed since Trump’s inauguration as President of United States. Although investors are wary that his policies are inflationary, there seems to be a disconnect between this notion and actual market behaviour, given the exuberance in the equity markets. Gold remains the top performer among the high conviction Trump trades prior to the polling results.”
Despite the recent correction in Gold, some US banks remain bullish, with some calling for gold to reach an all-time high of 3000, by end of year. However, in an inflationary environment, real yields could remain high, which could increase the opportunity cost of holding gold since it is a non-yielding asset.
Trump Trades Post-Inauguration
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of 13 February 2025
Trump’s new wave of reciprocal tariffs will likely hit yields. The figure below shows the CPI across tariff impacted goods segments during 2018-2019. After tariffs were imposed in Feb 2018, this basket of goods saw a close to 2% spike in prices in 3 months. This wave of tariffs in 2025 are broad based and could hit harder.
Fed funds futures have already priced in a higher terminal fed funds rate, as shown in the diagram in the middle – markets were pricing in a terminal rate this year at 4.25% prior to Trump becoming president, but as of last Thursday markets are pricing a terminal rate 25 bps higher (or one less cut this year). Moreover, manufacturing is rebounding, with new orders inflecting and could lead manufacturing PMIs higher. As such we do not rule out robust growth and the US economy outperforming the rest of the world, hence making the Fed’s job harder.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of 13 February 2025
Mr. William Chow brings over two decades of asset management experience and currently oversees Raffles Family Office’s (RFO’s) Advanced Wealth Solutions division while also serving on its Board of Management and Investment Committee.
He joined RFO from China Life Franklin Asset Management (CLFAM), where as Deputy CEO from 2018 to 2021 he oversaw $35 billion in client investments. William also chaired the firm’s Risk Management Committee and was a key member of its Board of Management, Investment Committee and Alternative Investment Committee. Prior to CLFAM, he spent 7 years at Value Partners Group, the first hedge fund to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, where he was a Group Managing Director. He started his career at UBS as an equities trader and went on to take up portfolio management roles at BlackRock and State Street Global Advisors from 2000 to 2010.
William holds a Master’s degree in Science in Operational Research from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and a Bachelor’s degree in Engineering (Hons) in Civil Engineering from University College London in the UK.
Mr. Derek Loh is the Head of Equities at Raffles Family Office. Derek has numerous years of work experience from top asset management firms and Banks – 16 Years on the Buy-side across 3 Major Cities in Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo. Derek demonstrates in-depth industrial knowledge and analysis, covering mostly listed equities.
As an Ex-Portfolio Manager for ACA Capital Group, Derek managed a multi-billion-dollar global fund for a world-renowned sovereign wealth fund and reputable institutional investors. Previous notable investors serviced include Norges Bank (Norwegian Central Bank), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Mubadala. Derek holds an Executive MBA from Kellogg School of Management and HKUST. He is also a CPA.
Mr. Tay Ek Pon is responsible for fixed income investment management at Raffles Family Office. He has over 20 years of fixed income experience across Singapore and Japan.
Prior to joining Raffles Family Office, Ek Pon was a portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management since 2018, responsible for Asia fixed income mandates. From 2016 to 2018, Ek Pon led the team investing in Asian credit at Income Insurance. From 2011 to 2016, he worked at BlackRock, managing benchmarked and absolute return fixed income funds. Earlier in his career, he held several positions as a credit trader in banks for 9 years.
Ek Pon graduated from the University of Melbourne with a Bachelor of Commerce and Bachelor of Arts.
Mr. Sky Kwah has over a decade of work experience in the investment industry with his last stint at DBS Private Bank. He has achieved and receive multiple awards over the years being among the top investment advisors within the bank. He often deploys a top-down investment approach, well versed in multiple markets and offering bespoke advice in multiple assets and derivatives.
Prior to his role at Raffles Family Office, Sky worked at Phillip Capital as an Equities Team leader handling two teams offering advisory, spearheading portfolio reviews and developing trading/investment ideas.
He has been interviewed on Channel News Asia, 938Live radio, The Straits Times and LianheZaobao as a market commentator and was a regular speaker at investment forums and tertiary institutions.
Licenced by SFC Type 1, 4 & 9 & MAS Capital Market Services